Nolan Watson | Management Must Be Countercyclical & Contrarian to Maximize Shareholder Value

Nolan Watson is the CEO and co-founder of Sandstorm Gold Royalties.  Perhaps no mining executive in the gold mining sector has negotiated more streaming and royalty deals than Nolan.  Before co-founding Sandstorm in 2008, Nolan was the Chief Financial Officer of Silver Wheaton, a multi-billion dollar public company where he helped develop the silver streaming business model and helped raise more than US$1 billion in debt and equity.  In this interview, Nolan talks about the state of mining finance and how Sandstorm is uniquely positioned for significant growth in this changing environment.

Sandstorm is a Mining Stock Education sponsor and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol SSL and on the NYSE American under the ticker SAND.  Visit to learn more about Sandstorm and to access the most recent investor presentation:

0:05 Introduction of topic and guest

2:16 Nolan Watson’s background as a mining executive

3:29 How Sandstorm Gold Royalties generates revenue

4:52 Wisdom of the royalty/streaming model of business

6:53 Sandstorm’s IPO and subsequent explosive growth

8:22 How mining finance is different in now than ten years ago

9:28 Nolan’s response to mining CEO’s who don’t like royalty agreements

10:52 How Sandstorm has used the mining boom-bust cycle to position itself for significant growth

13:34 Free exploration upside can yield significant growth for royalty companies

15:47 Sandstorm’s due diligence process in vetting a potential project/company

18:42 Sandstorm’s appeal to a physical precious metals-only type investor

19:56 Investing in Sandstorm vs. putting one’s money in a gold mining hedge fund

22:37 If gold goes to $700/oz, what would happen to Sandstorm?

23:36 Sandstorm’s valuation vs. its peers

25:14 How Sandstorm will finance future growth

26:37 Sandstorm’s share structure

28:20 Nolan’s parting wisdom for mining investors


Bill: Thanks for tuning in, ladies and gentlemen. You are listening to another Mining Stock Education episode. I’m Bill Powers your host. It’s my goal to bring on the program people that can either provide insights regarding resource investing or profile a quality mining investment opportunity. And my guest today is more than able to do both of those things. Nolan Watson is the CEO and co-founder of Sandstorm Gold. Perhaps no mining executive on the planet has negotiated more streaming and royalty deals in the gold mining sector than Nolan. Before co-founding Sandstorm in 2008, Nolan was the Chief Financial Officer of Silver Wheaton, a multibillion-dollar public company where he helped develop the Silver streaming business model and helped raise more than $1 billion U.S. in debt and equity.

Nolan joins us today to talk about the state of mining finance and how Sandstorm is uniquely positioned for significant growth in this changing environment. Sandstorm is a Mining Stock Education sponsor and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol SSL, and on the NYSE American under the ticker symbol SAND. So Nolan, welcome to the program.

Nolan: Well, thanks for having me here.

Bill: Nolan, you’re very well known, you had great success and notoriety in your 20’s, but for some of the listeners that may have not followed the mining sector as closely as other listeners, could you please give a snapshot overview of your background and your professional career as a mining executive?

Nolan: So I’m a finance guy who spent his entire career in the mining space. Actually, I originally started out as a chartered accountant or a CPA, if you will, and got a gold medal in accounting when I finished first in Western Canada there and then went on into my CFA, and then very quickly I started working in a company called Wheaton River Minerals which became Gold Corp and one of the largest gold mining companies in the world. And then they did an offshoot called Silver Wheaton and I was the first employee there. In fact, I still hold the plaque that says “employee number one”. And we grew that company from nothing to a multibillion-dollar market cap very quickly, and then I was the company’s Chief Financial Officer. And I think to this day, I still hold the world record for youngest CFO of a multibillion-dollar New York Stock Exchange listed company. And did that for a number years and then stepped out and decided to do it myself with a guy named Dave Awram and we started up Sandstorm back in 2009.

Bill: Could you describe in simple terms how Sandstorm makes money?

Nolan: Yeah. It is a very simple business, so it’s easy to do. Sandstorm is a gold royalty company. So, what we effectively do is go out there and buy interests in other people’s mines that they are pushing forward developing or the mines are already operating, and we buy a right to receive a percentage of their revenue for the entire life of the mine, so the contract might say something like, “We get 2% of the revenue forever.” And we go out there and we continually acquire these royalty contracts. And we’re up to 189 royalties right now which puts us as the company with the third most of mining royalties in the world.

Bill: And you also purchase streams. Talk about the difference between what are streaming agreement is versus a royalty.

Nolan: They’re effectively the same thing. The only minor difference is that in a stream you’re actually taking the physical product in kind, so instead of getting 2% of the revenue you might have a contract that says you get to buy 2% of their gold that are an artificially low price, sometimes it’s $0 per ounce, so that’s exactly like a royalty, sometimes it’s $400 an ounce, and so you’re making the difference between $400 and $1,200 whatever the spot price happens to be, but they’re basically the same thing more or less.

Bill: The first book I read on resource investing was written by the hedge fund manager and a mining stock investor, Adrian Day. And Adrian Day, as you know, is a huge proponent of your model of business. Can you talk about the wisdom of the royalty streaming model of business, why Adrian likes it and why you are engaged in that business?

Nolan: It is a very profound business model, and the more you learn about mining and the more people have invested in mining and learned about the pitfalls of doing so, the more they love the royalty model. And the reason is, is that you just simply don’t have a lot of the risks that you would normally get as an equity investor in mining companies. So mining companies typically dramatically overrun on their capital costs when they’re trying to build a mine. You don’t have that risk when you’re a royalty company. Mining companies during periods where gold prices going up, it’s usually periods where there’s lots of inflation and currency is being printed and your costs are going up a lot as well, and so your actual profit margin doesn’t really go up until investors who have been waiting for the big gold, the gold run finally get it and they don’t make any money from the mining stocks because it’s costing more to mine.

You don’t have that problem with royalty companies either because costs don’t go up for royalty company, but the revenue does. And there’s a whole host of other risks. If there’s a flood or a fire or any of those other things, the mining company is losing huge amounts of money during the periods where they have to fix those issues, the royalty company, they don’t have to fix it, they just wait until the mining starts up and running and then they continue to collect their checks. And then one of the other main benefits is that because a royalty company doesn’t actually have to operate any of these mines, we’re able to focus all of our attention on continuing to go out and buy more royalties and diversify the portfolio, so instead of being a mining company with three mines, say, we’re a royalty company with 189 royalty, so we just are so much more diversified.

If anything goes wrong with anyone mine it’s not a big deal. We’ve got good things happening at many of the other projects, and so year in and year out we’re able to just continually add value and we sleep well at night.

Bill: It’s a very low-risk model, but it also can provide significant upside. In Sandstorm’s first four years from 2008 to 2012 after the IPO, the shares reached about $15 U.S. here in the States. What did the company IPO at? And then take us through the dynamics of what caused such a tremendous growth during that time period.

Nolan: So, effectively, what I did is I took over a shell company and the first real financing we did was at 50 cents a share, and then we negotiated the acquisition of a couple of really great deals. We did another financing of $2 a share, and then the share price ran to $15 back when gold was $1,900 an ounce and everyone in the world was trying to invest in gold, and then the share price came all the way back down to $2 to $3 per share when nobody wanted to invest in gold and gold was $1,000 an ounce. And we’ve been able to use that period, because we went into the bear market with a fantastic balance sheet with no debt and with a bunch of cash in our balance sheet, and so we used that cash to buy a tremendous number of royalties and added a lot of value to our company. So, it actually was a blessing in disguise for us that that bad period in the gold market, and so we sit here today with much better royalty portfolio. We’re truly one of the world-class royalty portfolios out there and share price today is around $4.

Bill: I believe you’re speaking in Canadian dollars. I referenced U.S. dollars. Can you talk a little bit about how the state of mining finance is different in 2018 verses in 2008 when you started out?

Nolan: When we first started out, really, there was only Silver Wheaton and a company called Franco-Nevada and the company called Royal Gold. They were sort of the mainstream streaming and royalty companies. And it really was a bit of a niche way to finance. So, mining companies that had good mines that they wanted to build but didn’t have the capital or mining companies that are over-levered themselves and needed more capital, they would typically go out and just raise equity to get that capital or refinance with traditional banks. And streaming and royalty finance was sort of a fringe business, but if you fast-forward to today, it’s a much higher percentage of financings that are done in the mining industry. It’s effectively gone mainstream. All mining executives know that it’s an alternative that they can use for their projects, and so it’s allowed the royalty companies including Sandstorm to grow a lot in the last number of years.

Bill: Some mining CEOs as you know like Rob McEwen don’t really like this model. Can you address his objections to this model of business?

Nolan: Yes. It’s funny that you say that. He had said that a number of times on TV, and he’s obviously a wise guy and a very famous gold executive and investor and someone that I respect. There were some promoters who decided to arrange a debate between Rob and I at a conference. And so we got up there and we had our live debate and by the end of the debate, we agreed with each other that royalties are virtually always good to own and that there are times when it is good for a company to sell them and there are times when it’s bad for a company to sell them, and it depends on the specific for the company. So, for example, if you’re an executive of a mining company and your share price is inherently worth $1 but you’re trading at $2, you should not sell a royalty, you should go sell equity. But if you’re inherently worth $1 and your share price is trading at 10 cents, you should not dilute all of your shareholders by raising equity. It’s better to sell a royalty. And so it really just depends on the specifics of the underlying mining company.

Bill: So, whether a mining company sells a stream or not, the management should be making the best decision in interest of its shareholders. I mean, that’s what you and Rob agreed on.

Nolan: Yeah. And Rob loves owning royalties. In fact, he’s the largest shareholder of a small royalty company based out of Eastern Canada.

Bill: So, in true contrarian fashion you mentioned that as the gold price came down in 2015 and 2016, Sandstorm was scooping up deals. Can you talk a little bit more about how you’ve positioned Sandstorm to really see significant growth over the next five years?

Nolan: Yeah. One of the things that I’ve noticed over the years in the mining industry is that the average CEO really does a bad job managing the cycles, and they spend a lot of time giving into very short-term oriented investors instead of the long-term oriented investors. So, for example, at the bottom of the cycle, short-term oriented investors will say, “Just make sure you do not buy anything because the market is not gonna like it if your price might go down if you do.” And obviously, that’s the time you should be buying things. And at the top of the market, we certainly saw this during the last Gold Run when gold is $1,900 an ounce, all the short-term investors who were just telling the CEOs, “Buy things, buy things, buy things. What company are you gonna buy next? What assets are you gonna buy next?” The royalty companies are saying, “How many royalties can you buy this year? I think you should try to buy double that.”

And when gold is $1,900 an ounce, that’s when you shouldn’t be buying royalties. And so for the next several years, Sandstorm was sitting perfect because we’ve decided to be counter-cyclical as a management team to think longer-term. And so when things were bad, we have gone out and purchased a number of assets that are gonna be coming online over the next number of years. And so if we sit on our hands, do absolutely nothing and making no more acquisitions based solely on the things that we bought, we expect that our revenue and cash flow is gonna go up more than 130% higher than it is today over the next four years.

Bill: And that’s at a very conservative, in my opinion, estimation of gold I believe in your presentation that was at 1,250 gold, right?

Nolan: Yeah. An at any gold price, I mean, a $1,200 gold which is what it’s sitting at today will still be 130% appreciation from where our cash flow is right now.

Bill: I guess the point I was trying to make is that if gold does rise as some hope for and we see $1,500 or $1600 gold, then Sandstorm is looking potentially at exponential growth.

Nolan: Exactly. So, if we’re expecting, say, four years from now annual cash flow of $120 million a year approximately based on that $1,200 gold number, and if gold goes to $14, 15, $1,600 an ounce or higher, I think it’s going to go over $2,000 an ounce in the next five to 10 years, then we’ll be realizing $200 million plus of cash flow per year. That’s on an enterprise value right now of only $650 million.

Bill: And you have no debt which is something…

Nolan: No debt. Totally no debt.

Bill: It’s quite amazing for such a big company.

Nolan: Yeah.

Bill: And your market cap, I’m looking at the U.S. number, so you can correct me with the Canadian numbers, but it’s about $710 million market cap U.S. There are some royalty companies that have $11, $12 billion market caps. And as I’ve looked at the growth of how a royalty company gets that big, it often has to do with free exploration upside. Can you talk about how Sandstorm has positioned itself for some of that blue sky potential?

Nolan: That’s a huge part of our business model. It’s also an important part of why a royalty company is typically better than a mining company, because normal mine once it starts up and starts operating, the expected mine life it has on that day, usually the mine ends up operating three to four times longer than that. They just continue to explore and find more or, in our case, more gold as they go. And so we’re in a position where we have these contracts and as our partners are paying the money, remember, it’s very expensive to do exploration, they’re paying the money to do the exploration, they’re paying the money to do the mining and processing of the minerals to get the gold. They might not even make very much money on the gold but we continue to get the same benefit on every single ounce that they find. So, if the mine instead of going 10 years, goes 40, then we get that same stream of cash flow for a full 40 years, and that’s one of the ways that we as a management team have really tried to focus our business.

So, a typical mining project, for example, will be approximately on average about 40 square kilometers which admittedly is a large piece of land, 40 square kilometers is a lot of land. If you look at the top four, the four largest of our deals and where a significant reasonable portion of our cash flow is gonna be coming from, the average area of interest of those top four is probably close to 700 square kilometers. So, we’ve purposefully chosen massive land packages with lots of exploration upside that will have the benefit of that exploration upside for investors for years to come.

Bill: And Sandstorm I know does not throw your money around on a whim, but you go through an extensive due diligence process and even have a team of geologists. Can you speak a little bit about your due diligence process and how you vet a property?

Nolan: Yeah. So, about five years ago when we were starting to get larger, we went out and hired a world-class technical team and brought them in-house. Prior to that, we were sort of hiring consultants and whatnot. But we went out and literally we went to Washington DC and the International Monetary Fund which is the sister entity to the World Bank where all the countries of the world or their shareholders, and one of the guys who ran the Metals Mining and Petroleum Department who is a Master’s in mining, engineering and Master’s in geology and regarded as one of the smartest scientists in the entire world with respect to mining, we just hired him away from the IFC, moved him and his family to Vancouver and then we built a team around him.

We hired other people from the IFC and continued to poach other people from high-quality consulting firms. And so we built this exceptional team of engineers and geologists who were out there all the time evaluating projects and making sure that we’re investing in the best stuff. In fact, a number of our investors who follow us, a number of them will typically invest in some of the things that we have invested in because they know we’ve diligenced it.

Bill: Yeah. And that’s the point I’d like you to talk a little bit more about from the standpoint of how you help. After you vet these companies, you come into an agreement with them, you actually help those companies. Can you talk a little bit about that?

Nolan: Well, yeah. We started up about six months ago a division of Sandstorm called the Launch Lab, and what we’re effectively trying to do with the Launch Lab is take exploration companies who are on to really exciting projects where the market and investors don’t really understand how exciting this really is. And so when we find those types of stories, we will buy a royalty on the project but we will also become a large equity investor in that company. We’ll take anywhere from a 10 to a 20% stake in them. And then the Launch Lab is designed to help the CEOs understand how to get attention and incremental investors. We expose them to our investor base, and when we truly believe in something we’re not afraid to stand behind it and say we’ve diligenced it, and it gives investors a lot of comfort when we do that. And we basically just try to help the CEOs who on average, the average CEO in the mining industry because mining isn’t an industry where you need to market. It’s not Nike, we don’t have to market a product. We produce gold and you can sell gold anywhere at any time. So, your CEOs usually aren’t mavericks in marketing, and so, we’ve built a marketing department and hired marketing executives who will sort of nurture and help these companies and help people to see how good the project is and see what we see in it.

Bill: Nolan, if you were at a coffee shop and you happen to sit down and strike up a conversation with someone, and that person told you that due to excessive sovereign debt and other macro-geopolitical factors that they believed in holding physical gold and silver only with all their investment dollars, how would you appeal to them to consider investing in Sandstorm?

Nolan: Well, I certainly understand where they’re coming from because there’s a lot of political risks out there. And I don’t blame them for having that feeling of wanting to physically possess that gold. I think one of the benefits of a Sandstorm, however, is that we have invested in 189 royalties around the world. We are in many, many, many different countries. And the purpose of that is so that any one country can go crazy on any given day and the portfolio will still do very well, so that we diversify our political risk, we diversified geographically. And so, for example, if the United States does something crazy or any other country, we’re gonna be just fine and we can weather that storm. So, when people invest in Sandstorm, they’re effectively investing in 189 different investments in multiple different countries so that they get that safety.

Bill: Let’s take a high net worth person, a person of high net worth who doesn’t follow closely the gold and resource markets but understands the general thesis of why you’d want to invest in gold equities. He has $250,000 or more and he’s saying, “Where should I put this?” And he considers putting that $250,000 with a gold mining hedge fund manager and then he hears about Sandstorm or he meets you. How would you appeal to that person to consider maybe putting that $250,000 in Sandstorm, and why that might make sense versus a gold hedge fund?

Nolan: Well, it’s funny that you asked that because about two years ago I went to London and had lunch with a gentleman whose net worth is over $500 million, and was asking him about his investments and we’re talking about Sandstorm and he said, he used to pick individual mining stocks but it’s just too hard to do it and he’s really, really bullish on gold but he just doesn’t wanna… He’s tired of individual companies disappointing them. So, he just buys the ETFs and he owns zero mining stocks outside the ETF. And he probably he said he was never gonna invest in another mining company. And I talked to him about the benefits of Sandstorm and lo and behold, a year later I came back and I had lunch with him again just to catch up and he mentioned that he was a Sandstorm shareholder and I said, “Wait a second. I thought you don’t wanna invest in any specific gold company. You just buy the ETFs.” And he said, “Yeah. At the end of it, I realized that you’re effectively like an ETF except you’ve got a better yield and lower risk, and you got a better business model than all of mining companies of the ETFs that I was investing in. So, I still own some ETFs but now I own Sandstorm too.”

Bill: And he doesn’t have… If he were to do with the mining hedge fund he would have all those management fees, which with Sandstorm you can enter for $6.99 with a discount broker. 

Nolan: Yeah. I mean, that’s part of the key. If you think about hedge fund that usually asks for 2 and 20, they’re taking 2% of the value of your money every year which that’s not the end of the world, but they’re taking 20% of your gains which that’s a big problem because you’re absorbing 100% of the losses but you only get 80% of the upside, where at Sandstorm, people who invest in us they get 100% of that upside, and our management costs all of the geologists, all of the engineers, the executives, corporate development team, financial reporting, lawyers, everything all in costs 1% and dropping of the value of the company per year, and so you’re basically instead of paying 2 and 20 you’re paying 1 and 0 in terms of fees.

Bill: And it’s very liquid and you can access your money whenever you want. 

Nolan: Yeah. We trade. It’s normal for us to trade $10 million worth of shares a day.

Bill: Some people see gold going below $1,000/oz. There’s the Harry Dent’s that see gold going to $700 an ounce. Let’s say that does happen and we know what it would do to the junior mining sector, most companies would be decimated. But what would Sandstorm look like if gold goes to $900?

Nolan: Yeah. It would absolutely destroy just about the entire industry if it’s $700 an ounce. Sandstorm would still be profitable, it would still make money. It doesn’t have any debt. And we would use the opportunity to acquire a whole bunch of things dramatically below their inherent values and take advantage of the opportunity. One of the things that I love about our business is that we’re well positioned that if we can manage our own emotions as a management team well enough, that we can use high gold prices to earn a lot of money for investors and we can use low gold prices to add to the portfolio and create value for investors. And really the more extreme those two ends are the better our business model is.

Bill: And right now Sandstorm’s valuation relative to peers is actually, it could be argued is a good buying opportunity.

Nolan: Yeah. There’s an interesting thing that I’ve sort of realized in the not too distant past, was that the trading multiples of streaming and royalty companies are almost directly proportional to the percentage of their portfolio that is in production today. And so when you look around at companies like Franco-Nevada that have been around for a long period of time, 80% of the value of the company is already in production today. And what that means is that if you want to acquire Franco-Nevada shares, you have to pay two times the inherent value for those shares or 25 times cash flow or whatever they’re trading at today, whereas at Sandstorm only 37% of our portfolio is in production today.

Five years from now, it’ll also be 80% similar to Franco-Nevada which is why Sandstorm is trading at 0.7 times the inherent value of the shares. And once our entire portfolio… Once our portfolio has matured over the next four years, we ran an analysis as compared to other competitors where what is the enterprise value to EBITDA multiple? So, how many years sort of take to get back your cash based on 2022 cash flow? And for most of our competitors, the answer is somewhere around 18 to 20 times EBITDA. Based on 2022 estimates for Sandstorm, it works out to about five times. It’s quite a bargain five times versus 20.

Bill: Absolutely. And your position for growth, but in terms of how you will continue to position Sandstorm for growth, do you plan to finance that simply through future cash flow or will there be expected issuance of shares or taking on of debt?

Nolan: That’s one of the interesting things about where Sandstorm is today. When we were a young company, we had no cash flow 10 years ago and we had to go out and equity finance all of our acquisitions. Today we built a portfolio that’s generating $50 million of cash flow per year already and growing dramatically over the next few years. And so we’re now the last number of acquisitions we’ve made for the last year have all been based on cash flow from operations. We haven’t raised any more money. In fact, we’re one of the only mining companies in the world including mining and royalty companies that has actually been buying back their shares. So, we’ve purchased, I think, 5 million of our own shares in the last year to try to shrink our share float. And so we’re gonna be very diligent about how we grow the company to minimize dilution. And although we don’t have any debt, we do have USD 150 million revolving line of credit that’s undrawn that we can draw on anytime we want with 24 hours’ notice. So, if we find an unbelievable acquisition for $100 million, we wouldn’t be going and raising equity. To do that, we would use the rolling line of credit and then pay it off quickly.

Bill: Who owns the shares? What’s the breakdown between institutional and retail ownership?

Nolan: Yeah. It’s almost right down in the middle. It’s about 50/50. Of the institutional investors about 30%, more than that. Probably 40% now all of them are passive investors like ETFs. And the remaining institutional investors are active investors, mostly mining specialty funds that understand mining well. And then the retail investors, we currently have approximately 43,000 retail investors.

Bill: Now, I would assume that if a gold bull market does continue to progress then the percentage of retail investors would increase. Is that historically what occurs?

Nolan: In my experience, no. The number of retail investors increases materially, but usually, the amount of money flowing into the gold and stream from institutional investors when gold becomes sexy again is truly astronomical. You’ve got guys that will start writing $100 million checks at a time and it’s just so much capital that will come from institutional investors. That’s actually one of the important things that we are doing at Sandstorm is trying very hard to create a company that will be exciting to larger generalist investors when they finally turn their attention to gold. Right now nobody cares about gold because we’re in an interest rate hike cycle. I figure we’ve got about a year left before that’s done. And sometime between now and then people will start paying attention to gold again. When they finally do turn their attention to us, when the generalist investor picks up the phone and he phones a sales guy at a bank saying, “I want to own one or two gold stocks. Which one should I own?” We want the answer to be Sandstorm. And so that’s what we’re working to accomplish.

Bill: Nolan, you are looking at mining investment deals all day, so you know how to screen them. For the investors is particularly the retail investors that are listening to us now.  What advice would you give if you were sitting down speaking to a junior mining retail investor?

Nolan: I would say one of the things that I’ve learned over the years is that the single most important thing to do is invest in people who have had material success in their life before. Do not invest in people who don’t have a lot of money because they haven’t made a lot of money. They will be more motivated to stretch the truth, they will be more motivated to lie to make money, and they will be more likely to leave the investor holding an empty bag at the end of the day. If you find someone who’s been successful multiple times in the past and has a long track record of doing a good job and acting ethically, then try to create a portfolio of those types of companies.

Bill: Sandstorm, as I mentioned, is traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol SSL and traded on the NYSE American under the ticker symbol SAND. You can also learn more about Sandstorm, and I encourage you to go view their recent investor presentation at And Nolan, what’s the best way to keep up with you or you have any upcoming speaking engagements or any online presence listeners could follow you?

Nolan: Yeah. I’m gonna be at the Denver Gold Show coming up here at the end of the September and doing a presentation there that will be made public. But if you just go to our website as mentioned we typically post all of those things and we’ve got list that people can subscribe to as well. And if anyone’s interested in some of the things that we’re investing in even if they’re not going to invest in Sandstorm, they wanna know what we’re investing in and why, we’re gonna have a landing page not too distant future probably within the next month on the Launch Lab portion of Sandstorm’s website where they can be put on a list that will keep people updated as to what we’re investing in and why.

Bill: Well Nolan, I appreciate the conversation and given us an overview of Sandstorm and sharing your wisdom. Thank you for joining me today.

Nolan: Well, thanks for having me.

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