“People Call Me Crazy”: Three Contrarian Macro Trades from Tavi Costa

Tavi Costa, founder and CEO of Azuria Capital, reveals three contrarian macro trades for which, he says, “people will call me crazy.” He also discusses the recent gold sell-off, which Costa argues does not fit a typical liquidation event since equities and treasuries were not crashing; he suggests an alternative possibility that Iran or other gray-area actors may have sold gold accumulated via oil trade outside the dollar system. Costa says the pullback created an oversold buying opportunity and expects gold to be multiples higher over 5–10 years, driven by dollar devaluation tied to U.S. twin deficits, central-bank buying, stagnant mine supply, deglobalization, and portfolio reallocation toward gold. He also addresses multipolarity and petrodollar concerns, favoring gradual shifts rather than a near-term reserve-currency change. Costa describes rotating across commodities, taking profits in energy, buying gold and quality miners, and adding contrarian options positions.

00:00 Intro

00:45 Gold Sell-off Explained

02:52 Middle East Gold Rumors

04:31 Buying the Dip

06:17 Gold Drivers Long Term

10:08 Petrodollar and Multipolarity

12:37 Commodity Rotation Strategy

15:40 How He Buys Gold

17:29 Three Mispriced Bets

20:29 Most Contrarian Wins

24:33 Brazil and Emerging Markets

26:59 Zeria Capital Mission

31:32 Where to Follow Tavi