“We’re Already in Deficit”: The Critical Minerals Crisis No One’s Talking About – Amanda van Dyke

Host Brian Leni interviews Amanda van Dyke, founder and managing director of the Critical Minerals Hub and author of The Mineral Imperative, about rising mineral demand, supply-chain complexity, and geopolitical risk. Van Dyke says global metals and minerals output has doubled over 25 years and must at least double again to maintain today’s economic level, while mining faces lower grades and a discovery drought. She warns shortages can trigger volatile outcomes, including trade and shooting wars, noting China invested about $1 trillion over 25 years to control roughly 60% of the global metals/minerals supply chain and 90% of some small critical metals. They discuss Strait of Hormuz disruption risk, U.S. defense stockpiles, government-backed price floors like the MP Materials rare earth deal, G7 coordination, and why EU anti-mining policies and permitting risk make it a poor investment jurisdiction after losing 40% of mining capacity.

00:00 Intro

00:57 Meet Amanda Van Dyke

02:25 Why We Must Mine More

03:48 Scarcity and Trade Wars

05:54 Middle East Chokepoint Risks

09:30 Defense Stockpiles Reality

13:06 US Price Floors Explained

21:06 G7 Minerals Club Plans

22:48 EU Anti Mining Problem

27:20 Where Value Is Now

31:30 Biggest Bear Case Recession

33:45 AI And Net Zero Reality Check

37:05 The Mineral Imperative Book