Newmont’s Stellar Q1, Arizona Capex Blowouts & Trump’s Project Vault with Analyst Joe Mazumdar

Bill Powers interviews Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights about Q1 2026 results from major gold miners, focusing on Newmont’s 16% year-over-year production decline alongside a much higher realized gold price, modestly higher AISC, expanding EBITDA margins, and sharply higher free cash flow that is being directed to dividends and buybacks rather than major growth CapEx. Mazumdar argues reserve growth has relied on mega-mergers while organic reserve replacement and new-project spending remain limited, supporting higher commodity prices. The discussion then shifts to capital-cost blowouts at South32’s Hermosa/Taylor project and the negative-NPV PEA from Arizona Metals, emphasizing recurring risks in underground projects and how majors can absorb overruns unlike juniors. They cover Kodiak/Teck’s Arizona copper SpinCo concept, Trump’s proposed critical minerals “project vault” and price floors, and criminal fraud charges tied to altered assays at a junior, concluding with board oversight and compensation incentives.

00:00 Intro

00:16 Newmont Q1 Results Breakdown

01:16 Margins Surge on Gold Price

03:35 Cash Returns vs Reserve Growth

05:54 Do Majors Still Explore

08:48 Why Divest Small Mines

12:21 Incentives Drive Strategy

16:00 South32 Hermosa Capex Blowout

23:13 Arizona Metals PEA Shock

27:31 Underground Project Pitfalls

28:54 Supply Crunch and M&A

30:57 Arizona Copper Spinco

34:37 Founder Shares Concerns

36:32 Critical Metals Project Vault

41:14 Assay Fraud and Enforcement

45:00 Board Pay and Incentives

48:58 Newsletter and Site Visits