Farming, Not Forecasting: Malcolm Shaw on Investing in Juniors without Predicting Commodity Prices

Malcolm Shaw is a former geologist, sell-side analyst and hedge fund energy and mining investor. He is a proven junior resource stock picker and has invested for himself since the end of 2011. This is his first ever podcast interview. Malcolm keeps a low profile and grows his newsletter, The Circle, almost entirely by word of mouth. Bill and Malcolm first crossed paths on a due diligence call about five years ago.

They cover Malcolm’s path from Calgary geologist to Bay Street, why he doesn’t try to call commodity prices, how he sizes and exits positions, and the stories behind his biggest winners and one current loser. In this MSE episode, Malcolm explains his rational approach to junior resource speculation. Listen and learn!

00:00 Intro

00:29 Meet Malcolm Shaw

01:09 From Geologist to Analyst

02:35 Sell Side vs Buy Side

04:05 Going Independent

05:38 Why Start a Newsletter

09:51 No Forecasting Just Positioning

13:36 Deal Flow and Watchlists

16:40 Holding Periods and Exits

18:56 Portfolio Construction and Big Bets

21:32 Tenaz Energy Case Study

26:19 Mining Winner Alpha Minerals

29:27 Developers and Production Plays

32:05 Marketing and Sector Allocation

34:22 Niche Metals and Competence

36:05 Network Driven Due Diligence

38:17 Biggest Loser Lessons

Malcolm’s newsletter: https://www.thecircle.ca/